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195 nations sign the Paris Agreement, paving the way for global climate action

Negotiators and journalists alike could feel the tension mount. Those who had been present in Copenhagen in 2009, when the failure to secure a global climate agreement was a crushing disappointment, felt uncomfortable flashbacks.

However, over the previous two weeks, Paris had felt very different to Copenhagen. There was a positive buzz in the French capital to replace the impending sense of doom felt during the cold Scandinavian winter six years beforehand.

Then, after 7pm, the French Foreign Affairs minister Laurent Fabius invited the 195 nations present to adopt the draft text, and with unanimous approval the Paris Agreement was born.

No-one will pretend it is perfect, but a global agreement is undoubtedly a step forward in a process that has not always been easy.

What’s in the deal?

The deal does not set legally binding targets for greenhouse gas emissions, but countries are required to submit pledges that are reviewed every five years. This removes the need for the UN climate change process to act as a global arbiter, and rather positions it as a global forum where strategies are developed and reviewed. The hope is that those countries that fall behind will increase their efforts through peer pressure.

Over 180 countries had already submitted their five-year pledges before the Paris conference had started. This bottom-up approach was a key factor for success, in contrast to the more top-down approach of Copenhagen, where reluctant key players were dragged to the table kicking and screaming.

This strategy also recognises that local solutions will ultimately determine the success of the process.

Aspiration to limit warming to 1.5°C

The text states a goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels, however as of yet does not provide a path to get there. The pledges submitted may limit warming to around 2.7°C by 2100, and scientists warn that the increase may be too much to avoid irreversible and negative consequences. Paris provides a structure, but global ambition will have to increase in future years; this could be achieved through revision of national pledges at five year intervals. The text aim is to achieve zero net greenhouse gas by the second half of the century.

An improved political environment

A variety of factors allowed a deal to be made. The political push by the EU, the excellent management by the French and the willingness of the US and China to push through an agreement were critical factors.

The Kyoto protocol of 1997 had been hampered by a fundamental distinction between developed and developing nations, placing the historical responsibility for CO2 emissions on first-world states. This was key to American opposition to the Kyoto protocol, but central for industrialising states such as India. While the Paris Agreement does not distinguish both groups entirely, it does place greater emphasis on developed nations. Financing of some $100bn a year has been promised to developing states to aid in the transition to clean energy and adaptation to climate change impacts.

Barack Obama was known to want to a climate legacy from his presidency, and the presence of John Kerry in Paris added to the political capital invested from the US, although both were wary of the Republican-controlled US senate. In China, pollution has become a greater social issue since 2009, and a deal signed with the US in 2014 on climate cooperation paved the way for collaboration in Paris.

This improved political environment was backed up by better science. The latest IPCC report published in 2013 and 2014 was more certain than ever that climate change is man-made, and that further warming will cause irreversible impacts on the planet, urging policy action.

The hard work starts now

Clearly this deal is not a solution by itself, but it represents a step forward that puts everyone on the same page. It is pragmatic rather than idealistic. Many will criticise it for not going far enough, but given the starting point it is an important achievement. However, unlike scientific papers, publication of policy and legislation is not the end of the work, just the beginning. 

Like a New Year’s Resolution, the hard work starts now and there will be many chances to fail.

Calum MacKichan

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